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2023 Housing Forecast Market

2023 Housing Forecast Market

HOME PRICE FORECASTS FOR 2023

Latest Forecasts from Each Entity 

The housing market, once adjusted to the new normal of higher mortgage rates, will benefit from continued strong demographic-driven demand relative to an overall, long-run shortage of supply.

– Mark Fleming,Chief Economist, First American

From our perspective, the good news is that demographics remain favorable for housing, so the sector appears well-positioned to help lead the economy out of what we expect will be a brief recession.

– Doug Duncan, Senior VP and Chief Economist, Fannie Mae

A new report showing inflation rising again in September is just the latest bad news for new homebuyers, who are increasingly seeing the cost of a first home pushed out of their reach. 

The latest news puts lenders, already on edge amid a grim economic outlook, on high alert as they look to further cut costs and avoid mortgages that might end up in delinquency. 

As a result, buyers are going to find it increasingly difficult to obtain a loan that enables them to purchase a quality home amid sky-high prices and mortgage rates. 

Buying a home in January 2021 required roughly 19 percent of the median household income to afford the average home, Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research at the data analytics company Black Knight told The Hill. 

“Today, with 30-year rates nearing 7 percent, it requires 39 percent —more than twice the share —of that same median household’s income to make the mortgage payment on that same average home purchase,” Walden said in an email. “That’s simply made it unaffordable for many potential buyers, significantly shrinking the pool of potential buyers in the market.” 

The Consumer Price Index released from the Labor Department Thursday found that inflation increased in September by 0.4 percent and 8.2 percent over the past 12 months. 

For years, elected officials from across the political spectrum in New York City have scored points by attacking a common enemy: Real estate developers.

Politicians routinely quashed projects. Some officials argued they were protecting a neighborhood’s character and property values. Others said they were fighting corporate greed. On Friday, a left-leaning City Council member, Julie Won, said she would oppose a big new project in her Queens district, calling it a “gentrification accelerator.”

But a housing shortage and affordability crisis may be changing the political calculus for some progressives who have traditionally been among the most fervent critics of the real estate industry.

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who opposed the construction of an Amazon campus near her district, said recently that she would support local officials who make way for more housing, and a number of City Council members on the left have embraced new developments, even in cases where most of the units would not be affordable for working-class New Yorkers.

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